Roll Pink Tide Roll

Flickr user: Presidencia de la República del Ecuador

The Left in Latin America is breathing a collective sigh of relief today, as two of its most important standard bearers--Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Ecuador's Rafael Correa--signalled a continuation of progressive governance in the region.

Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa handily won reelection on Sunday, and early reporting suggests his Alianza Pais party may win a slight majority in Congress (though figures won't be official for some days). While most observers predicted a win, either in the preliminary or runoff phase, few expected the overwhelming 57 percent showing for Correa. Correa has already made history, as Ecuador's first president to win a free and fair reelection, and now as Ecuador's longest serving democratically elected president.

Sunday's result extends Correa's term through 2017, and gives the U.S.-trained economist a renewed mandate to deepen his "Citizen's Revolution." Many expect the president to double down on (much needed) infrastructure development and social spending, extending the state's role in the oil-reliant economy and supporting further integration among ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas)countries. Correa is also unlikely to relax his harsh treatment towards opposition media.

Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez--no doubt ALBA's most important figure--alerted Venezuelans to his return from Havana early Monday with a tweet thanking God and his people. Chavez had hardly been heard from since his December 11th departure to Cuba for cancer treatment. In the meantime, rumors and speculation swirled relentlessly around the president's fitness for office(not to mention strong challenges to the legality of Chavez' status as president after missing his inauguration in January), throwing some doubt on the future of the Left in Latin America sin Chavez.

Chavez has still not disclosed the type of cancer with which he is afflicted, and despite previous assurances of his health, questions about his health ability to govern are likely to follow him for years. Former presidential challenger Enrique Capriles quickly welcomed the president back to a country facing massive economic, social, and security challenges, "Buenos días, leyendo la noticia que regresó el Presidente, bienvenido sea a Venezuela, ojalá que su retorno genere cordura en su Gob" (Good morning, reading the news about the President's return, welcome back to Venezuela, hopefully your return brings some sanity back to the government). Caracas is one of the most violent cities on earth, inflation is rampant, there is a serious housing shortage, and Venezuela's infrastructure is crumbling.

This week's developments likely mean that the Left will continue ruling in Venezuela and Ecuador at least through 2017 (Chavez' term is scheduled to end in 2019). Chavez' return should also reassure governments in Cuba, Nicaragua, and others who benefit from his government's economic largess. As I have written previously, while the tenure of both figures followed periods of political-institutional breakdown (chronic, in the case of Ecuador), neither has done much for long-term political stability in their countries. And, while their economic legacies may in fact be mixed (impressive poverty reductions, unsustainable fiscal and economic policy), their quasi-authoritarian legacies could very well undermine any gains made.

Elections in Ecuador

Ecuadorians go to the polls this Sunday to elect a president and congress. Most analysts predict a win for sitting president Rafael Correa, though if he doesn't win an outright majority (or at least 40 percent of the vote with an advantage of at least 10 percent over the runner up), he may face a runoff.

The opposition to Correa, much like the country's political system in general, is fractured (he faces seven challengers from a myriad of parties and movements). The president faces his strongest challenge on the right from Guillermo Lasso, a former banker who heads CREO (Movement Creating Opportunities). According to recent polling from ARCOP, a Mexican firm, Lasso comes in second with 26 percent to Correa's 39 percent. This result would require a runoff, tentatively scheduled for April 7.

Click here for a good breakdown of the various factions vying for power in Ecuador.

Behind Lasso is Alberto Acosta, onetime ally of Correa and co-founder of the left-leaning Alianza Pais, the party which Correa now heads. Acosta, heading a coalition of groups frustrated with Correa's authoritarianism, (particularly his continued assault on Ecuador's press) is unlikely to reach the runoff stage. However, his group could draw congressional seats away from the Alianza Pais, and frustrate the president's hopes at achieving a majority in the National Assembly, which is set to elect 137 members this week.

This week's elections will likely have far-reaching impacts on Ecuadorian economics and politics. While Correa's aggressive "anti-imperialist" rhetoric (generally aimed at international monetary institutions and the U.S.) and abuse of the media typically catch the headlines in the U.S., his development policy may be a more positive legacy. Under his tenure, poverty in Ecuador has dropped from around 37 percent to about 27 percent--still astronomical, but impressive. Ecuador's conditional cash transfer program, Bono de Desarrollo Humano, deserves some recognition here. The president is also eager to showoff new roads, schools, and medical clinics funded by heavy borrowing--mainly from China, since Ecuador has been a pariah of lending institutions since its 2008 debt default. While his economic policies may prove to be unsustainable, they have yielded real (if still tentative) results.

Correa's political-institutional legacy is likely to be more mixed, at best. Ecuador has a very poorly institutionalized electoral system, which frequently encourages volatile elections, dramatic policy swings, patronage and clientelism, short-sided economic policy, and authoritarianism, among other problems. Many of these terms apply to Correa's Ecuador, though the president cannot be held solely responsible for a poorly institutionalized system--the country went through seven presidents in ten years, prior to electing Correa. Nevertheless, Correa has built a machine centered--not unlike Venezuela's Chavistas--around a single personality. While the system may seem relatively (for Ecuador) stable at the moment, Correa's decline or departure (see for example: Chavez, Hugo) could result in any number of political upheavals, none of which are likely to contribute to Ecuador's future economic development.