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| Flickr user: Presidencia de la República del Ecuador |
Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa handily won reelection on Sunday, and early reporting suggests his Alianza Pais party may win a slight majority in Congress (though figures won't be official for some days). While most observers predicted a win, either in the preliminary or runoff phase, few expected the overwhelming 57 percent showing for Correa. Correa has already made history, as Ecuador's first president to win a free and fair reelection, and now as Ecuador's longest serving democratically elected president.
Sunday's result extends Correa's term through 2017, and gives the U.S.-trained economist a renewed mandate to deepen his "Citizen's Revolution." Many expect the president to double down on (much needed) infrastructure development and social spending, extending the state's role in the oil-reliant economy and supporting further integration among ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas)countries. Correa is also unlikely to relax his harsh treatment towards opposition media.
Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez--no doubt ALBA's most important figure--alerted Venezuelans to his return from Havana early Monday with a tweet thanking God and his people. Chavez had hardly been heard from since his December 11th departure to Cuba for cancer treatment. In the meantime, rumors and speculation swirled relentlessly around the president's fitness for office(not to mention strong challenges to the legality of Chavez' status as president after missing his inauguration in January), throwing some doubt on the future of the Left in Latin America sin Chavez.
Chavez has still not disclosed the type of cancer with which he is afflicted, and despite previous assurances of his health, questions about his health ability to govern are likely to follow him for years. Former presidential challenger Enrique Capriles quickly welcomed the president back to a country facing massive economic, social, and security challenges, "Buenos días, leyendo la noticia que regresó el Presidente, bienvenido sea a Venezuela, ojalá que su retorno genere cordura en su Gob" (Good morning, reading the news about the President's return, welcome back to Venezuela, hopefully your return brings some sanity back to the government). Caracas is one of the most violent cities on earth, inflation is rampant, there is a serious housing shortage, and Venezuela's infrastructure is crumbling.
This week's developments likely mean that the Left will continue ruling in Venezuela and Ecuador at least through 2017 (Chavez' term is scheduled to end in 2019). Chavez' return should also reassure governments in Cuba, Nicaragua, and others who benefit from his government's economic largess. As I have written previously, while the tenure of both figures followed periods of political-institutional breakdown (chronic, in the case of Ecuador), neither has done much for long-term political stability in their countries. And, while their economic legacies may in fact be mixed (impressive poverty reductions, unsustainable fiscal and economic policy), their quasi-authoritarian legacies could very well undermine any gains made.
