Elections in Ecuador

Ecuadorians go to the polls this Sunday to elect a president and congress. Most analysts predict a win for sitting president Rafael Correa, though if he doesn't win an outright majority (or at least 40 percent of the vote with an advantage of at least 10 percent over the runner up), he may face a runoff.

The opposition to Correa, much like the country's political system in general, is fractured (he faces seven challengers from a myriad of parties and movements). The president faces his strongest challenge on the right from Guillermo Lasso, a former banker who heads CREO (Movement Creating Opportunities). According to recent polling from ARCOP, a Mexican firm, Lasso comes in second with 26 percent to Correa's 39 percent. This result would require a runoff, tentatively scheduled for April 7.

Click here for a good breakdown of the various factions vying for power in Ecuador.

Behind Lasso is Alberto Acosta, onetime ally of Correa and co-founder of the left-leaning Alianza Pais, the party which Correa now heads. Acosta, heading a coalition of groups frustrated with Correa's authoritarianism, (particularly his continued assault on Ecuador's press) is unlikely to reach the runoff stage. However, his group could draw congressional seats away from the Alianza Pais, and frustrate the president's hopes at achieving a majority in the National Assembly, which is set to elect 137 members this week.

This week's elections will likely have far-reaching impacts on Ecuadorian economics and politics. While Correa's aggressive "anti-imperialist" rhetoric (generally aimed at international monetary institutions and the U.S.) and abuse of the media typically catch the headlines in the U.S., his development policy may be a more positive legacy. Under his tenure, poverty in Ecuador has dropped from around 37 percent to about 27 percent--still astronomical, but impressive. Ecuador's conditional cash transfer program, Bono de Desarrollo Humano, deserves some recognition here. The president is also eager to showoff new roads, schools, and medical clinics funded by heavy borrowing--mainly from China, since Ecuador has been a pariah of lending institutions since its 2008 debt default. While his economic policies may prove to be unsustainable, they have yielded real (if still tentative) results.

Correa's political-institutional legacy is likely to be more mixed, at best. Ecuador has a very poorly institutionalized electoral system, which frequently encourages volatile elections, dramatic policy swings, patronage and clientelism, short-sided economic policy, and authoritarianism, among other problems. Many of these terms apply to Correa's Ecuador, though the president cannot be held solely responsible for a poorly institutionalized system--the country went through seven presidents in ten years, prior to electing Correa. Nevertheless, Correa has built a machine centered--not unlike Venezuela's Chavistas--around a single personality. While the system may seem relatively (for Ecuador) stable at the moment, Correa's decline or departure (see for example: Chavez, Hugo) could result in any number of political upheavals, none of which are likely to contribute to Ecuador's future economic development.