Some possible scenarios for Venezuelan succession

Flickr user: Globovisión

As Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez enters his third month of convalescence in Havana, following an operation and serious lung infection in December, the struggle for power has already begun in Venezuela. Univision has a quick guide to some of the possible scenarios for succession to the presidency. Here are some of the scenarios considered:

Chavismo continues...
In this first and perhaps most likely scenario, at least in the near future, representatives from Chavez' own movement maintain control of the levers of power. In this case, the two most likely candidates to succeed the President would be Vice President Nicolas Maduro or Diosdado Cabello, president of the National Assembly. Chavez sent a strong signal by designating Maduro as his chosen successor (should he not return from Cuba) before undergoing treatment. With six years as Chavez' Foreign Minister under his belt, Maduro, a former bus driver, also apparently has something of a rapport with the Castro brothers in Cuba. His foreign experience is particularly important to Chavismo, a movement that under Chavez, has had strong regional and global ambitions.

Cabello, on the other hand, has more of a constitutional basis for assuming the presidency. Moreover, the president of the National Assembly also wields important influence in military sectors and within the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). Many note however, that Cabello lacks foreign credentials and doesn't possess anywhere near the kind of charisma necessary to head a movement so closely linked to a single persona.

Internal power struggle...
If either of the two leaders most closely associated with Chavismo fail to fill the power vacuum created by a possible Chavez departure, there could be a wider struggle for power between leaders on the periphery of Chavismo, weilding their own powerful constituencies. In such a situation, analysts predict that Francisco Arias Cardenas, governor of the large oil-producing state of Zulia; Jose Vielma More, governor of Tachira; or Rosa Virginia Chavez, the President's daughter, would vie for power. Arias Cardenas, one of the original members of Chavez' 1992 coup attempt, would be a powerful player if the PSUV were to hold primaries to select a successor candidate--though Arias fell out of favor with Chavez and his closest advisers in recent years.

Jose Vielma Mora, another member of the 1992 coup cohort and current governor, is another possible candidate. His credentials come from the fact that he is apparently one of the Chavez administration's most efficient functionaries. His handicap is the low profile he has kept since the 1992 coup attempt.

Rosa Virginia has an important claim to the mantle of Chavismo as the President's oldest daughter, de facto first lady, and a close advisor. While she has little experience with governing, analysts predict that she could play more of a "kingmaker" role in a potential transition.

Outsider opposition...
The Venezuelan opposition sees a possible path to power in the case of Chavez' death. This could come about through an agreement among and between factions of Chavez' movement, or through a strong showing in elections, which should be called in the case of the President's permanent absence. The opposition has been notoriously divided in the past decade, and any rise to national power would likely rest on the shoulders of the governor of the state of Miranda, Henrique Capriles. Capriles recently came the closest to dethroning Chavez, losing the October 2012 election with 45 percent of the vote. In the absence of Chavez' strong unifying effect for those opposed to his policies, it is unclear whether Capriles could hold together various opposing factions and put together a strong coalition.