While the debate over US policy towards Cuba has raged for decades, barring major changes on the island, the status quo will likely continue for several years. There are are however, several assumptions and implications about our Cuba policy and economic sanctions more broadly that I find worryingly absent in public debate on the issue.
One issue is the startling lack of a voice for Cubans living in Cuba. Many writers in the US portray a kind of arrogance or detached patrimonial concern for "what's best" for Cubans (I realize that I have limited standing here, advocating policy, having never been to the island, etc.). This is true on the left and the right, and includes Cuban Americans. Those who advocate reform, which include left-leaning reformists and free-trading conservatives, often do so believing that increased contact and trade between Americans and Cubans will encourage and equip Cubans to resist and overthrow the Castro regime. Those who oppose reform have traditionally cited the argument stemming from hard line Cuban American quarters that increased travel and trade "provides a source of hard currency for the Castro regime." Both positions tend to depict Cubans themselves as mechanisms--pawns even--in a quest shared by left and right to undermine communist rule: liberals hope to empower the people, while conservatives worry that the regime will itself be empowered at the expense of its people.
This manipulation (good intentions aside) for the sake of political change undergirds the logic of US sanctions levied against any regime. There are some exceptions to this generalization: in Iran, targeted sanctions are supposed the restrict the ability of elites (but clearly affect the citizenry) to finance and procure material for their nuclear project; in North Korea, sanctions famously targeted the ruling clique's taste for luxury goods. But in the majority of cases, sanctions are a blunt attempt to make the lives of enough of the citizenry miserable enough that they rise up and either overthrow the regime or force it to change or abandon the policy that triggered sanctions in the first place. The problem with our public discussion of sanctions though, is an overreliance on the the economic damage wrought by sanctions as an indicator of their success. In other words, if we see that sanctions are wreaking havoc on the economies (and lives) of a country, we generally say they are "working."
But the discussion usually stops there.
Throughout the 1990s sanctions against Iraq inflicted hyperinflation rates upwards of 4,000 percent, sky high child mortality rates, and a death toll of up to 500,000. Even in Cuba, while the economic policies of the Castro regime have done the most damage, sanctions have clearly had a major impact on the economics of families, communities, and the state--otherwise, why keep them around? Yet unlike many sanctions, those deployed against Cuba can hardly be considered "targeted sanctions." In fact, defined by the GAO as some of the most comprehensive on any country, the current embargo (recent adjustments notwithstanding) is nearly total.
In this sense, sanctions have "worked." In both the Iraqi and Cuban cases though, the people did not (or could not) force the kind of hoped-for change in policy or regime. Iraqis who did rise against Saddam in the post-Gulf War period were pummeled by chemical weapons. More recently, in Iran, another state to experience devastating sanctions, thousands who protested against rigged elections in 2009 were violently dispersed by regime thugs.
The Cuban opposition faces a different obstacle. US policy towards the island encouraged an "exit option" for many of those with the inclination or means to oppose Castro over the course of 50 years. This escape valve limited the effectiveness of groups who, absent a receptive destination for political exiles and refugees 90 miles from Cuba, would have exercised their "voice," (in the terminology of the late Albert Hirschman) and sought reform from within. (This is not to say that Cubans have not bravely resisted the Castro machine--indeed, many have paid dearly for doing so--only that the resistance movement was seriously weakened by so many having left the island.) In other words, while it seems clear that sanctions have achieved the proximate goal of damaging the Cuban economy over the course of half a century, there is no question that they have failed in the secondary goal of affecting change on the island.
Worse, many, including the widely read dissident blogger Yoani Sanchez, argue that the sanctions have only strengthened the Castro regime, allowing it to blame the US for decades of economic disaster and enabling it to survive well past its expiration date. Change to US policy then, should at the very least adopt a "first, do no harm" standard, and take away the ability of the Castros to blame US policy for their failures.
Beyond simply eliminating a tool by which the Castros oppress their own people, removing the embargo is the right thing to do because it restore the dignity of Cubans who have for generations been treated as pawns in the US government's conflict with the Castro regime. I am under no illusions that foreign policy calculus equally weighs strategic and humanitarian interests; it doesn't. Nor do I believe US policy towards Cuba is made in a political vacuum; it isn't. I am also not one to gush over recent liberalizing reforms on the island, positive though they may be. I do however join with others who see the potential for economic growth, and by extension empowerment of everyday Cubans as a result of increased trade and travel to the island, as a good in and of itself. And if an empowered Cuban populace also contributes to US policy objectives, well, maybe that is just a bonus.
