Colombian Peace Negotiations

In November 2012, the Colombian Government sat down with representatives from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and began what has become a sincere, if tentative, process of negotiating an end to the longest running civil conflict in the hemisphere. Now into its third month, there are some signs of progress and some signs of imminent and increasing strain.

The talks, hosted by Cuba, revolve around five main points of contention: land distribution and development, demobilization, political participation for (future) ex-guerrillas, drug policy, and victims' rights. For now, negotiators are focused on the issue of land distribution policy, at once the root of the conflict and perhaps the closest thing to low hanging-fruit in these negotiations. Recent initiatives by the Colombian government have given a little ground in this area. Last year, the government launched a land restitution scheme aimed at putting land (around 2.5 million hectares in 2012) back into the hands of people who have fled the conflict.

In a country where approximately 1.15 percent of individuals control just over half of the country's farmland (according to the UNDP), there is clearly a long way to go. And, the going will likely get tougher; the government would like to distribute only fallow federal lands, while the FARC focuses on land concentrated in the hands of the conservative agro-export elite.

Writing for the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), Adam Isaacson notes that so far, both sides have come to the table in sincerity and have shown collegiality and respect for secrecy. There have been almost no leaks and despite the end of a unilateral FARC ceasefire on January 20 and resumption of hostilities, the parties have remained at the table. Interestingly, the government's refusal to declare or participate in any ceasefire (unlike during previous talks), may serve to strengthen the possibility of achieving a deal--particularly considering the fact that the FARC is considered to be the weakest it has been in decades.

Several potential obstacles could, however, derail the process. As negotiators continue to dig in to the land reform issue, the question of what land to redistribute and to whom will be tricky. WOLA's Isaacson observes that the country's largest association of cattle-ranchers has joined former president Alvaro Uribe in strenuously denouncing the negotiations. The two parties have not begun to address the question of political integration of ex-guerrillas, or the issue of drug policy reform--two issues that could raise the ire of many Colombian groups as well as the international community (the U.S. included).

The Santos administration has expressed its unwillingness to continue negotiations past November, 2013. As a result, the pace of the negotiations has become a real challenge. Further, assuming a deal is reached (far from a safe bet), implementation of the plan is an unknown. The government would like to put the resolution to a referendum while the FARC would prefer to institutionalize the outcome through a constitutional convention. Finally, the country's other long-standing rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN) has not been included in the negotiations. It is unclear whether the ELN could be folded into some kind of agreement, or if the two groups would have to start from scratch. The specter of disaffected farqueros defecting to the ELN or forming a splinter organization raises the important question of how consolidated the FARC really is: if a deal were reached, could they deliver?

Many Colombians as well as international observers (myself included) are cautiously optimistic. A large majority--71 percent--in a December 2012 Gallup poll indicated they supported the peace negotiations. When asked about their expectations for a deal though, they were somewhat ambivalent: only 43 percent expressed optimism.